Methodical Trading - Volume 24- "Coinbase IPO & Price Discovery!" 🚀
Bitcoin Update, Ethereum, Litecoin, Altcoins, & News
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Bitcoin and Ethereum have made fresh All Time Highs with several other majors following suit.
Coinbase will be listed on the Nasdaq shortly and may bring a great deal of volatility to the crypto markets.
Litecoin shows some promise of breaking the macro downtrend against the BTC pair.
Many Alts across the board have continued to pump over the past week as the bull market rages on!
Talking Points
Bitcoin Breakout & Coinbase IPO
Ethereum Price Discovery
Litecoin In-Depth
Alts On A Run
Bitcoin Breakout!
Bitcoin has had a nice breakout above the gray box as mentioned in the previous Volume. Price is currently underway towards the $70,000 target and any retest of the gray region should be seen as a technical long trigger. However, caution should be warranted going into the Wednesday U.S open due to the Coinbase IPO (Which is mere hours away). It is unknown as to what the effects of the Coinbase IPO will bring to the overall market. Volatility should be expected during the U.S trading hours as all eyes will be on the price of $COIN for Wednesday morning. It could be bullish, bearish, or do absolutely nothing at all. There is no historical event similar to the IPO that is taking place, thus, the underlying effects it may have on the market are completely unknown.
In reality, this IPO should be a bullish event that allows for a new flock of retail customers to pour into crypto and begin to get exposure without setting up accounts with exchanges. It could also be viewed as a “gateway” for Stock traders and investors to begin exploring crypto in a more direct manner. However, price could also sell off entirely and bring Bitcoin along with the rest of the market down with it. There is simply no telling as to what may happen with the price of $COIN. De-risking and exiting leveraged positions seems like the smartest strategy for Wednesday morning. Holding spot bags and sitting on the sidelines is completely reasonable given the historic event that is taking place. The market is here to stay and simply watching it for one day will not be detrimental to anyone’s trading portfolio.
Ethereum Price Discovery!
Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum has pushed even higher into fresh All Time Highs. Price discovery towards the upside leaves an exponential amount of room to push higher. Currently, it does not appear that a clean retest of $2,180 will be taking place. As mentioned before, the Coinbase IPO may bring a large amount of volatility over the next trading day. Note that the current 4 hour trend of the 21/26 EMA’s (Brown/Orange) currently sits around the $2,220-$2,240 region. The current push towards the upside and long period of consolidation that has taken place over the past few weeks suggest that we have entered a fresh bull trend. Any test of the 21/26 EMA’s should be seen as a “buy-the-dip” scenario until the overall trend is lost.
Price targets of $2,500 and $3,000 are logical here as Ethereum continues to push higher. If all things hold up after Wednesday and the Coinbase IPO becomes a truly bullish event, then respecting the trend instead of fading it will surely make the most amount of money. Keep this in mind over the next 24 hours as it may finally be time to ride the trend for the next few weeks or months! Exciting times are ahead!
Litecoin In-Depth (Will It Finally Outperform Bitcoin & Ethereum?)
Taking a look at the Daily for LTCBTC, price is currently ABOVE the 200 EMA/MA’s (Green/Black). Price has been unable to rally and start a macro trend against the BTC pair for nearly TWO YEARS. LTCUSD has performed well amidst the bull market, but the falling BTC pair means that it is losing significant value against Bitcoin and is trailing very far behind. However, it does appear that price is showing some “bottoming” signs and may begin to rally once again. Continuing to hold above the 200 EMA/MA’s on the Daily is one of the key things necessary to push higher.
On the 3D chart, price is compressing within a falling wedge (a technical bullish reversal structure) and is tapping on the converging trend line for the third time this year. If price breaks this structure towards the upside, then any retests should be seen as a definitive long trigger and suggests that the macro bottom is in for LTCBTC. A breakout of this falling wedge structure would likely result in Litecoin outperforming both Bitcoin and Ethereum for a short period of time. A rejection from this third tap may result in a deeper retrace that sweeps the recent lows set in late March followed by a move that finally breaks towards the upside of the falling wedge structure. However, a firm break below the pattern along with repeated 3D closes underneath it would not be a good sign for any potential Litecoin bulls. Overall, the bullish scenarios should be the favored as the crypto bull market continues to mature. The Risk:Reward ratio for longs is also extremely high if LTCBTC were to bottom out set up a macro bull trend.
On the Weekly for the LTCUSD chart, price has very little resistance on the path towards $300. In fact, the $314 and $385 level appear to the be the next stops for price if it were continue pumping higher. Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, Litecoin has yet to break the previous All Time High it set in late 2017 during the blow off top that ended the last bull market. If history repeats itself (or rhymes), then Litecoin should follow the path that Bitcoin and Ethereum have set over the past few months. A break above the $314 level may result in a new range being created and allow brief consolidation to take place below the $400 region. However, the overall outlook for LTCUSD is that it will indeed make price discovery in the coming weeks or months. Combine this with the current outlook of the higher timeframe charts for LTCBTC and you get an extremely profitable Risk:Reward play. The future looks bright for Litecoin… But it still needs to check off a few things off the list in order to confirm a macro bottom! Holding the 200 EMA/MA’s on the Daily, breaking above the 3D falling wedge structure, and pushing past previous ATH territory will help set the bull case for Litecoin.
One more chart to keep in mind is LTCETH and how price has tapped the above gray box as resistance multiple times over the past few months. Generally speaking, the more times a resistance is tapped then the weaker that resistance becomes. This concept is applicable to support levels as well. It is entirely possible that LTCETH has also set a macro bottom in and is beginning to gear up for another macro uptrend as well. A break of the gray region and a successful flip of the 200 EMA/MA’s will be a strong sign that Litecoin will outperform Ethereum in the next bull trend. The two scenarios are outlined in the squiggly lines above. The first scenario results in an immediate flip of the gray region while the second scenario results in a rejection followed up by a third tap of the rising trendline. This is the time to be paying attention to Litecoin and exercising patience as price action develops! Wait for a confirmed breakout before taking any position here!
Alts On A Run
FTTUSD:
FTT continues to prove itself in an absolutely monstrous parabolic uptrend. It’s easy to recognize that the Coinbase IPO has been bullish for ALL exchange tokens (so far). FTX is one of the largest crypto exchanges that exist currently and serves as the only true competitor against Binance. Sam Bankman-Fried (CEO of FTX) continues to make industry changing standards and explore more than just new crypto currency listings. Tokenized stocks, betting markets, leveraged tokens, staking, lending, etc. are only some of the things that FTX continues to add to their exchange. FTT’s parabolic growth is a direct result of all the progress SBF & company have made over the past couple of years.
Price has only tapped the EMA 8 (Blue) three times in recent weeks. Volume is also increasing which is a good sign that the trend still holds a great deal of strength and will continue pushing higher for a longer time period. The current 21/26 EMA’s (Brown/Orange) rest around the $44.50-$46.00 region. Any dips into these EMA’s should be seen as clear “buy-the-dip” opportunities to continue riding the trend. More often than not, price action of this nature will hold upon the FIRST test of the higher timeframe trending EMA/MA’s. The longer term target for FTT is $100 minimum.
Below is a Tweet thread that compares $COIN to FTT along with a breakdown of revenue, volume, growth, etc. I highly recommend taking the time to read this thread if you are interested in accumulating more FTT for the long term.
ADAUSD:
ADA has been consolidating for a month and a half now in an ascending triangle pattern. Price has had multiple wicks into the gray region and the current candle suggests that it may finally be breaking this resistance. A successful breakout will lead to more price discovery. Volume is also slowly increasing on this recent rise up the past week. Pay attention to ADA here as it could easily be a top performer on Binance or FTX shortly! The first target here is $1.85 followed up by $2.00 as well.
THETAUSD:
Price discovery seems to be the theme across the board for the strongest alts out on the market currently. THETA is gearing up for a strong bull break if it can breakout of this triangle. Price has held up nicely so far and the macro uptrend for THETA along with the fundamentals behind the project make it likely to continue pushing higher. Overall, the strongest projects out in crypto have continued to develop and make progress as the bull market rages on. Holding spot bags and taking swing trades will likely reap the highest rewards over 2021. Accumulating and accumulating is still the name of the game so far. Exercise patience, conviction, and discipline in order to get the full benefit of the crypto bull market!
Keep calm and HODL on!
Please note that this newsletter is NOT Financial Advise. Neither Methodical Trading and/or it’s associates should be considered Financial Advisors. Any and ALL related Market centric material should be considered educational content for entertainment only. Methodical Trading and/or it’s associates are not responsible for any financial endeavors an individual/group chooses to take.